2023-24 Mountain West Basketball Bracketology: February 16

The time for March is approaching, as we are roughly a month away from the start of the NCAA Tournament. Is the six-bid Mountain West dream still alive? Let’s examine below in our latest bracketology update!

Boise State

NET: 45

KenPom: 51

Lunardi: 10-seed

Bracket Matrix (As of Feb. 15): 101 (out of 103)

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 9.8

Skinny: As a result of losing two straight and three of their last four against Quad 1 opponents, Boise State’s a combined 7-7 in Quad 1-2 games and dropped to No. 45 in NET. The Broncos are still a tournament team, but they will not have any more Quad 1 opportunities the rest of the month; their next four games will be against Fresno State, San Jose State, Wyoming and Air Force, so they can’t afford any mishaps heading into the final stretch.

Colorado State

NET: 30

KenPom: 36

Lunardi: 7-seed

Bracket Matrix: 103

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Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 6.6

Skinny: Colorado State’s biggest problem this season has been its ability to close out games on the road. CSU led by 14 at halftime of Tuesday’s game against San Diego State, but got outscored by 30 (41-11) in the second half. The Rams got blitzed on the glass by Jay Pal, Micah Parrish and Reese Dixon-Waters and shot just 12.0 (twelve!!!!) percent in the second half. They are 7-5 in Quad 1-2 games and will have a pair of Quad 1 games next week with two more Quad 2 games to close the month. Their tournament prospects remain safe.

Nevada

NET: 47

KenPom: 45

Lunardi: Last Four In

Bracket Matrix: 93

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 10.7

Skinny: Nevada hurt its tournament chances after losing Tuesday, though it still appears safe after back-to-back top-25 wins. It lost by one at the hands of Jamal Mashburn Jr., who made a pair of clutch 3-pointers in the final minute, including a wide-open corner triple to put the Lobos ahead 83-82. Nevada still possesses five Quad 1 wins, but don’t have any Quad 2 victories at the time of this publishing. They have a big (Q2) game Saturday against UNLV on the road before the schedule eases up. Including Saturday’s, their three biggest games will be away from home, where they’ve lost three of their last four.

New Mexico

NET: 22

KenPom: 24

Lunardi: 10-seed

Bracket Matrix: 100

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 9.3

Skinny: New Mexico secured its third Quad 1 victory of the season Tuesday on the road against the Wolf Pack, their first Quad 1 win in nearly a month. The Lobos have won their last four games on the road and will have another very daunting task on the road against SDSU Saturday. UNM has lost seven of its last eight inside Viejas Arena. New Mexico is one game back of Utah State for the conference lead and closes the campaign with four of its next six against Quad 1 opponents—three coming away from home.

San Diego State

NET: 18

KenPom: 19

Lunardi: 5-seed

Bracket Matrix: 103

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 5.3

Skinny: San Diego State maintained its top-20 ranking in the NET with its 16-point comeback victory over Colorado State, completely turning the tide in the second half. They are slowly, but surely building up their resume with two Quad 1 home wins over their last four games. They have eight combined Quad 1-2 victories—four apiece—with two more against New Mexico and Utah State this week.

Utah State

NET: 27

KenPom: 39

Lunardi: 7-seed

Bracket Matrix: 103

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 5.3

Skinny: The Aggies control their own destiny not only for a MW regular season title, but to improve their at-large seeing. They shook off their two-game skid with wins against Boise State and Wyoming over the last week, putting them atop the conference with eight combined Quad 1-2 wins. Even though they have only two Quad 1 wins, they have an excellent opportunity to add at least one more this next week against Colorado State and San Diego State.