2023-24 Mountain West Basketball Bracketology: February 23

We are nearly two weeks away from the conclusion of the 2023-24 Mountain West basketball regular season and three weeks away from Selection Sunday! We still have six projected Mountain West teams in the NCAA Tournament bracket, more than the Big Ten, ACC, Big East and Pac-12! With that said, let’s hop into this week’s bracketology update!

Boise State

NET: 35

KenPom: 43

Lunardi: 9-seed

Bracket Matrix (As of Feb. 22): 105

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 9.5

Skinny: Boise State improved a remarkable 10 spots in the NET over the last week with two victories over Fresno State and San Jose State (both Quad 4 foes) by a combined 66 points (!!). Its Quad 3 loss to UNLV earlier in conference play has still dinged their NET, which is now in the top-35 after being nearly out of the top-50. Their schedule is still eased up against Wyoming and Air Force before it can add to its resume against New Mexico, Nevada and San Diego State to close the regular season.

Colorado State

NET: 26

KenPom: 34

Lunardi: 6-seed

Bracket Matrix: 105

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Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 6.3

Skinny: Roughly a handful of the latest bracket matrix projections have Colorado State as a top-5 seed, despite having lost two of their last three to Quad 1 foes. They remain unbeaten in Quad 2 games despite boasting a 3-6 Quad 1 record, the worst among the top-7. They have a chance to remain unbeaten in Quad 2 games with a pair against UNLV and Nevada over this next week before it closes the regular season against Wyoming and Air Force.

Nevada

NET: 42

KenPom: 42

Lunardi: 10-seed

Bracket Matrix: 102

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 10.2

Skinny: As the sixth MW team in the fold, Nevada is rightfully in the field in over 95 percent of current projections—thus confirming that the conference would have six teams in the bracket, should the season end today. I sound like a broken record, but weirder things have happened across the country during the conference tournament season. So the Wolf Pack—winners of five of their last six and six of their last eight—must continue to take care of business and avoid any bad losses down the stretch of the regular season. It would likely be a No. 10 or 11 seed as of today.

New Mexico

NET: 20

KenPom: 26

Lunardi: 9-seed

Bracket Matrix: 103

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 9.0

Skinny: As a result of its two-point win over Colorado State, the Lobos squeaked into the top-20 in NET for the first time in two weeks. They have won three of their last four Quad 1 games and will end the 2023-24 regular season with a pair of them on the road against Boise State and Utah State on March 2 and 9, respectively. Despite having the fewest Quad 1 and Quad 1-2 wins amongst the top-6, they are fourth in the bracket matrix’s average seeding and would likely be a No. 8 or 9 seed if the tourney began tomorrow. That’s as well as you could ask for if you’re UNM, all things considered.

San Diego State

NET: 18

KenPom: 18

Lunardi: 4-seed

Bracket Matrix: 105

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 4.1

Skinny: It still appears that SDSU would likely own a top-4 seed in the March bracket, as of today. SDSU went 2-2 over this four-game Quad 1 stretch against Nevada, Colorado State, New Mexico and Utah State, respectively, moving to 4-7 in Quad 1 games this season. Though they don’t have another throughout the rest of the regular season—rather having two Quad 2 games against UNLV and Boise State (should they not enter the top-30 in NET) to close the regular season.

Utah State

NET: 31

KenPom: 39

Lunardi: 8-seed

Bracket Matrix: 105

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 6.9

Skinny: Even though Utah State is now solely atop the Mountain West standings after their five-point win against San Diego State, they dropped four spots in NET since last week due to its 20-point loss to Colorado State. Nevertheless, they have eight combined Quad 1-2 wins on the season and have positioned themselves well for a potential top-8 seed in March if they can take care of business over the next three weeks—which is ideal (avoiding the 8-9 is the best case!).