2023-24 Mountain West Basketball Bracketology: March 1

As a wise man (Jimmy Butler) once said: It’s that time! The calendar has turned March! The fun is just getting started! After a chaotic week in the Mountain West basketball spectrum, let’s go over our first bracketology update of everyone’s favorite month!

Boise State

NET: 26

KenPom: 37

Lunardi: 7-seed

Bracket Matrix (As of Feb. 29): 108 (out of 109)

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 8.74

Skinny: Boise State may not have moved up a whole lot in terms of their potential NCAA Tournament due to their recent schedule, but they have surely moved up from a metrics perspective. It has more than taken care of business against the bad teams, winning each of its last four games by at least 20 points against Fresno State, San Jose State, Wyoming and Air Force, respectively. They were No. 49 in NET on Feb. 11; they are now No. 26 with three pivotal contests coming up against New Mexico, Nevada and SDSU. The former two are inside ExtraMile, where they are 12-1 this season. Plenty of room to add to its resume as the regular season closes.

Colorado State

NET: 29

KenPom: 33

Lunardi: 9-seed

Bracket Matrix: 108

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 7.8

Skinny: Eek! The Rams have lost three straight and four of its last five, losing to UNLV on the road Saturday and to Nevada in chaotic fashion Tuesday. All four of those losses were Quad 1-2 losses—two Quad 1 and two Quad 2. They still have five Quad 1 wins and eight Quad 1-2 wins, but it closes the regular season against Wyoming and Air Force. These could be looked at as “get right” games ahead of the MW Tournament. All we know is they have dropped precipitously in terms of its NCAA Tournament seeding after being viewed as a top-6/7 seed, which isn’t ideal at this point of the season.

Nevada

NET: 39

KenPom: 40

Lunardi: 10-seed

Bracket Matrix: 109

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 9.3

Skinny: Jarod Lucas’ buzzer beater heard around the world rewarded the Wolf Pack with their sixth Quad 1 win of the season. No team in the Mountain West has more Quad 1 wins, as it’s just one of 13 teams across the country with at least a half-dozen Q1 victories. It’s in the top-40 in NET and in prime position for an at-large bid after being on the bubble for most of MW play. They have won four straight and seven of their last eight and close the regular season against Fresno State, Boise State and UNLV.

New Mexico

NET: 25

KenPom: 34

Lunardi: 11-seed

Bracket Matrix: 105

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 10.2

Skinny: I went over this on Thursday, but New Mexico’s loss on Saturday isn’t completely detrimental to their at-large chances of making the tournament, despite their lack of Quad 1-2 victories. Not all of them are created equal, which is why UNM remains so high up in the NET despite having only three Quad 1 wins (point differential!!!). The gap for comfort has understandably slimmed down, but the Lobos are still top-25 and NET and are likely looking at a 10-11 seed if the tournament started tomorrow.

San Diego State

NET: 18

KenPom: 19

Lunardi: 4-seed

Bracket Matrix: 109

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 4.1

Skinny: San Diego State hasn’t moved its No. 18 spot in NET in nearly two weeks. They earned a pair of victories over Fresno State—by 32 points—and San Jose State and will close the regular season against UNLV (Tuesday) and Boise State. They have won four of their last five, and possess eight Quad 1-2 wins (four apiece). As of right now, SDSU is most likely looking at a top-5 seed come the tournament.

Utah State

NET: 35

KenPom: 43

Lunardi: 7-seed

Bracket Matrix: 6.6

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 6.6

Skinny: As a result of its four-point overtime win against Fresno State Tuesday, the Aggies dropped six spots in the NET, falling out of the top-30. Their final three games consist of Air Force (Quad 4), San Jose State (Q3) and New Mexico (Quad 1). They also have four Quad 1 and 2 wins apiece and could lock up a share of the conference’s regular season title if it avoids slipping up—like it nearly did Tuesday.