2023-24 Mountain West Basketball Bracketology: March 8

ONE. WEEK!! We are less than one week away from the tip-off of the Mountain West Tournament and less than two weeks away from the start of the NCAA Tournament! With that said, let’s provide an update on our bracketology rankings!

Boise State

NET: 28

KenPom: 40

Lunardi: 9-seed

Bracket Matrix (as of March 7): 90 (out of 90)

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 8.1

Team Rankings Odds of making the NCAA Tournament? 96%

Skinny: Boise State dropped three spots in NET as a result of its 10-point loss at home to Nevada, its third home loss of the season. It effectively eliminated its chance at a share of the MW Title, despite previously clinching a bye. It will also end the regular season on the road against San Diego State inside Viejas. The Broncos are still not in a bad position heading into the NCAA Tournament, but ideally, it would want to get itself out of the 8-9 pod. The Broncos have three Quad 1A wins on the season and are 5-4 in Quad 1 games. If they have a strong MW Tournament, I would not be surprised if it buoyed itself into a top-7 seed by the end of next week.

Colorado State

NET: 35

KenPom: 35

Lunardi: 10-seed

Bracket Matrix: 90

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 8.58

TR Odds of making the NCAA Tournament? 95%

Skinny: Colorado State has nearly dropped 10 spots in NET over the last two weeks, and its eight-point win at home against Wyoming didn’t necessarily do them any favors. The Rams remain 5-7 in Quad 1 games and 4-1 in Quad 2 games, so its resume still doesn’t look poor. But the direction they have gone over the last three weeks is down—despite three losses by two possessions or fewer against quality opponents—which is not ideal at this stage of the season. They will have another chance to get right against Air Force heading into next week, where it will most likely be a No. 7 seed against SJSU, barring a loss.

Nevada

NET: 34

KenPom: 38

Lunardi: 7-seed

Bracket Matrix: 90

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 7.62

TR Odds of making the NCAA Tournament? 98%

Skinny: No team improved its stock this week more than Nevada, who secured a massive 10-point win on the road against Boise State. As a result, the Wolf Pack bumped up eight spots in NET to No. 32 and is still inside the top-35. Winners of six straight and nine of its last 10, Nevada will play host to rival UNLV Saturday, who’s won five straight and 10 of its last 11. It cannot finish below No. 4 in the MW standings and would be a likely 7-8 seed if the NCAA Tournament began tomorrow.

New Mexico

NET: 25

KenPom: 36

Lunardi: Last Four In

Bracket Matrix: 71

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 10.94

TR Odds of making the NCAA Tournament? 95%

Skinny: As of right now, New Mexico is the MW squad most in the bubble—though most projection systems still have them in the field. It doesn’t end the season on an easy note, either, having to play Utah State—who already clinched a share of the regular season title—in Logan, Utah. It can’t finish above No. 5 for MW seeding, so it will likely have to win at least two games next week if it wants to improve its chances for an at-large bid.

San Diego State

NET: 19

KenPom: 20

Lunardi: 5-seed

Bracket Matrix: 90

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 4.72

TR Odds of making the NCAA Tournament? 100%

Skinny: UNLV’s four-point win over San Diego State Tuesday moved it into the top-75 in NET, thus making it another Quad 1 loss for San Diego State instead of a Q2 loss. The Aztecs are now 3-8 in Quad 1 games and 17-0 across the other three quadrants, but the metrics love them as a potential top-5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Their most likely opponent heading into next week’s MW Tournament is Boise State, who it coincidentally plays Friday. If it wants to avoid falling out of the top-5, it must take care of business inside Viejas, where it's unbeaten this season.

Utah State

NET: 75

KenPom: 74

Lunardi: 6-seed

Bracket Matrix: 90

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: 6.43

TR Odds of making the NCAA Tournament? 98%

Skinny: Utah State clinched a share of the MW regular season title this week and will clinch it outright with a win over New Mexico Saturday. It is currently positioned to be a top-6 seed come the NCAA Tournament, according to most projection systems, even though it’s dropped to outside the top-30 in NET. Utah State is currently 4-4 in Quad 1 games, which it can improve upon this weekend if it beats New Mexico (and they don’t drop more than five spots).

Honorable Mention: UNLV

NET: 75

KenPom: 74

Lunardi: -----------

Bracket Matrix: ------------

Average Bracket Matrix Seed: -----------

TR Odds of making the NCAA Tournament? 46%

Skinny: Is the seven-bid dream … alive?!?! No way, right?!?! UNLV is one of the hottest teams in the MW and, believe it or not, can earn a share of the MW Title with a win Saturday (at Nevada) plus a USU loss. I still don’t think it would make it as an at-large, but never say never. It just cracked the top-75 in NET with three Quad 4 losses (eek!) on its resume. The only foreseeable path is winning the MW Tournament, but nobody should be surprised if Kevin Kruger and Co. go on a run next week, with how their defense has played lately.