2023-24 Mountain West Basketball: UNLV’s midseason turnaround deserves its flowers

UNLV’s start to the 2023-24 men’s basketball season did not get off to a good start.

Picked to finish No. 6 in the Mountain West’s 2023-24 preseason poll, the Runnin’ Rebels slept-walked against Southern inside Thomas & Mack Center to open the season. UNLV was without touted offseason transfers Keylan and Kalib Boone, quickly fell behind 21-9 and could not dig out of its hole offensively, losing 85-71.

Outside of a stunning Quad 1 semi-home win against Creighton—whose kryptonite appeared to be any team with the purple and gray letters “MW” pasted on the hardwood—the Rebels had a fairly rocky non-conference slate. They picked up wins against Hofstra and Akron but suffered another Quad 4 defeat in Loyola Marymount, putting their NCAA Tournament hopes in flux as conference play approached.

The struggles were noisiest on the defensive end through the first two months, though head coach Kevin Kruger saw improvement in as it strung along.

“The last couple weeks we’ve done a really good job guarding the ball and keeping it in front,” Kruger said in late December, according to Mike Grimala of the Las Vegas Sun. “We’ve really got to become elite at that as we go forward.”

“The light switch seemed to go on and we became a really good team in terms of keeping the ball in front and forcing tougher shots,” Kruger said. “It became contagious, I think. We weren’t over-helping, we were making teams take tough shots and it was really a large reason we were able to get a couple wins before the break.”

The flashes were there, but they still weren’t consistent.

They even struggled to begin MW play, beginning 2-4, including a 32-point blowout at home to Air Force, winless in MW Play until then.

At that time, the Runnin’ Rebels were No. 203 (out of 362) in adjusted defensive efficiency on the season and No. 7 in MW play. They weren’t protecting the paint well enough, they were not winning the battle on the glass (67.2 DRB%) nor were they as connected on that end of the floor.

But that’s when everything changed for the Rebels. Since? UNLV has been the best defense in the conference. They’re forcing a similar amount of turnovers (17.9 oTOV%) as they were before (17.8), but they’re keeping teams in front and protecting the paint at an elite rate. Since Jan. 25, they have ranked atop the conference in effective field goal percentage allowed (44.7, which would rank 12th nationally) and in opposing 3-point percentage (26.7 3P%) despite ranking No. 2 in opposing 3-point rate (43.7%) over that span, having rattled 10 wins over its last 11 games.

“We’re figuring these games out,” Keylan Boone said after its win over San Jose State Saturday, according to Grimala. “We’re coming in more together as a team. Not so much the coaches, but as players we’re figuring it out.”

After surrendering north of 110 points per 100 possessions in six of its first 18 games, UNLV’s opponents have yet to surpass that benchmark since. The closest game on Feb. 14 against Fresno State (109.7) in its 67-65 win inside Save Mart Center in Fresno, Calif.

Throughout much of the 2023-24 season, we (the media, specifically, myself included) have fetishized over the top-6 in the Mountain West: Utah State — who just clinched a share of the regular season title ... (Danny Sprinkle should get coach of the year honors, seriously) — San Diego State, Boise State, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado State. The bottom of the conference was bad (relative to the rest, in all fairness), but the top was just as strong ... historically strong for MW’s standards.

Though one team that hasn’t gotten quite enough respect is UNLV; it clinched a first-round bye ahead of next week’s MW Tournament and, better yet, can win a share of the regular season title with a win over rival Nevada Saturday AND a Utah State loss to New Mexico.

The job Kevin Kruger and Co. have done to turn around this season in a historically good MW season can’t be ignored, especially after its disastrous start. The head of the snake has been MW Freshman of the Year candidate Dedan Thomas Jr., who’s averaging 16.0 points and 3.6 assists on 57.2 percent true shooting over his last 11, in addition to the Boone brothers, Luis Rodriguez and Rob Whaley Jr.

It’s been a collective effort on both ends of the floor. Save for at least two of its Quad 4 losses, we’d be talking about UNLV potentially being a lock for an at-large bid.

Only one Mountain West foe has more Quad 1 wins (Nevada — 6) than UNLV does (5) nor does any team have as many Quad 1-A wins (3), tied with Nevada and Boise State for the MW-most.

According to Barttorvik, if you flip its loss to Southern and Air Force (the two worst teams it lost to) to a simple win (point differential notwithstanding), it would be a First Four Out team because of how stacked the bubble is. Though it’s not impossible that the committee could give them the benefit of the doubt given the best wins on their resume.

Obviously, if UNLV found a way to make a deep run in the MW Tournament, there’s a world where a seventh bid exists, which would’ve been crazy to say a month ago, let alone in December. It makes my spine tickle now.

Regardless of how their season concludes, don’t let the top-6 take away from how impressive this midseason turnaround is for UNLV. They deserve their flowers.

“Six weeks ago, everyone wrote everyone in this program off,” Kruger said Tuesday. “And there was a nastiness around it. But they stuck together, they continued to work they went and won in some tough venues, they had some great wins here at home, and they’re playing for each other.”