2023-24 Mountain West Basketball: Who’s the favorite to win the regular season title?

It’s been a slew of chaos within the 2023-24 Mountain West Basketball standings, especially atop the conference. Today, we are going to examine which teams are the favorite to win the Mountain West Conference regular season title with just under a month to go!

Utah State

DraftKings Sportsbook Odds: +135 (42.6 percent implied probability)

Team Rankings Odds: 44.9 percent chance to win regular season title

Barttorvik Odds: 61.7 percent they earn a share; 33.5 percent outright

It’s been a merry-go-round atop the Mountain West this season, with a new team stealing the thunder each week. Though the most consistent has been Utah State, which sits alone at the top of the Mountain West by one game over New Mexico and San Diego State. Their toughest remaining games come on the road against Colorado State on Saturday, at home against San Diego State on Tuesday and against New Mexico—whom it lost to once already—on March 9 to close the regular season. Unless there’s a slip-up against Fresno State, San Jose State or Air Force, the Aggies essentially control their destiny.

San Diego State

DK Odds: +210 (32.3%)

TR Odds: 21.5 percent

Barttorvik Odds: 34.0 percent, 13.3 percent

You can never count San Diego State out; Brian Dutcher’s Aztecs have won three regular season titles over the last four seasons. Though SDSU’s slip-ups on the road could come back to bite. They are still unbeaten at home, but are 7-6 away from home—including 4-6 in true road games. Two of their four toughest games the rest of the way will be on the road—including Utah State on Tuesday. If they can secure that victory, there’s a path to at least a share at another MW regular season title.

New Mexico

DK Odds: +330 (23.3%)

TR Odds: 19.5 percent

Barttorvik Odds: 25..1 percent, 8.4 percent

New Mexico’s huge victory over Nevada put them within a game back of the MW lead, but they’ll need to do it again on Saturday in Viejas, where it’s lost seven of the last eight meetings. New Mexico likely has the toughest path because they also have to play Boise State and Utah State on the road in addition to Colorado State at home.

Boise State

DK Odds: +1200 (7.7%)

TR Odds: 7.1 percent

Barttorvik Odds: 19.5 percent, 5.0 percent

Boise State lost three of its last four and four of its last six against the conference’s top-7. Two of those losses have come to Utah State, rewarding the Aggies with the head-to-head tiebreaker, essentially putting it two games back of Utah State instead of 1.5 (unless there’s a three- or four-team tiebreaker ... chaos!!). Their schedule does ease up with their next four against Fresno State, San Jose State, Wyoming and Air Force. So there’s still an opportunity to move up the ladder and create chaos, but the hill is slightly steeper than it was two weeks ago.

UNLV

DK Odds: +1800 (5.7%)

TR Odds: 3.9 percent

Barttorvik Odds: 6.1 percent, 1.0 percent

UNLV has entered the chat!!! Don’t look now, but it’s sneakily in the chase for a share of the MW regular season title—sitting 1.5 games back of Utah State. The Runnin’ Rebels are currently on a five-game winning streak. But they still have two more against the Wolf Pack plus home contests against SDSU and Colorado State, where it has the opportunity to play spoiler. Only two MW squads (Nevada, Boise State — 5) have more Quad 1 wins than UNLV, who has four.

Colorado State

DK Odds: +2500 (3.9%)

TR Odds: 2.1 percent

Barttorvik Odds: 5.2 percent, 0.6 percent

The Rams are two games back of the MW lead, but will have a chance to potentially narrow the gap Saturday against Utah State. Though their following three competitions will be against New Mexico (road), UNLV (road) and Nevada (home), where it would likely have to go unbeaten if it wants to win the regular season title. They’ve gone just 1-5 in true road games in MW play this season.

Nevada

DK Odds: +5000 (2.0%)

TR Odds: 1.1 percent

Barttorvik Odds: 2.6 percent, 0.2 percent

Losing Tuesday all but eliminates Nevada from a MW regular season title, putting them 2.5 games back of Utah State. Though never say never...

Wyoming, Fresno State, San Jose State, Air Force

Well ... better luck next year!

All in all, it appears that Utah State is in the driver's seat as the outright regular-season champion. However, as we all know, it’s impossible to predict this conference day-to-day, let alone week-to-week or even month-to-month. Over half the conference is desperate for 1.) better seeding ahead of the MW Tournament (top-3 teams earn byes) and, more importantly, 2.) an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. So we are still expected to see plenty of parity with the top of the conference eating each other alive.

Who do you think will win the regular season? Let us know in the comments!

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