Peak Perspective: Realistic Four-Year Cycle (Year 3 Check-In)

Let’s check in once again.

By MikeWittmann@Mike_SBN Mar 6, 2024, 8:00am PST

Two years ago, we started this expectations exercise, dedicating a column to identifying four-year realistic cycles for each team. Last year, the two-year check-in took place to see how each team is doing so far. This is year three of the expectations we laid our for each of the twelve teams in the Mountain West conference. Check below for each team’s four-year win highs and lows, as well as their potential bowl and conference championship cycles.

Disclaimer: each team’s specific breakdown is meant to be examined in its own context, not in relation to every other team. This means that multiple teams may have the expectation of making a conference championship once every four years, even if it’s not possible for each team to do so over the same four-year period.

Air Force

Four-year high: 11 wins
Four-year low: 6 wins (9 wins)
Other two years: 8 wins (10 wins, 10 wins)
Bowl cycle: Four out of four years (3 out of 3)
Bottom Line: The Falcons have a high ceiling but low floor given the uniqueness of their offensive scheme, which can lead to polarizing results. In the past few years, they have either had a dynamic offense or a stout defense, and when they have both, they are one of the best teams in the conferences. If they only have one or the other, Air Force becomes more the type of team that competes for bowl berths, which they should achieve every year.
Year 1: Air Force has a strong season, and that shows up in their ability to check some things off of their list of expectations. They made a bowl game and are above average in the win column, as far as what is listed here anyway. Although the Falcons fell just short of their four-year high for wins, next year’s team is supposed to be even better, at least on paper, so they will have a good shot to reach that eleven-win plateau.
Year 2: The Falcons had big expectations entering the 2022 season. While they didn’t reach them, they still reached the ten-win plateau (for the third year in a row), made another bowl game, and knocked off a few Power 5 teams in the process. They fell short of their high win mark of eleven, and this past season may have been their best shot. On the other hand, it seems very unlikely they will drop down to six wins in the next two seasons, despite needing to reload on offense heading into 2023.
Year 3: Air Force has been as consistent as possible during this window, reaching nine wins for the third year in a row. Actually, the nine wins is their low during this time, and it would be great if that remained their four-year low. Once again, the Falcon made a bowl game, which wasn’t a surprise. It may be a bit of a long shot for them to get to their four-year high of eleven wins, but otherwise, Air Force has met or exceeded the expectations laid out for them here.

Boise State

Four-year high: 12 wins
Four-year low: 9 wins (7 wins)
Other two years: 10.5 wins (10 wins, 8 wins)
Bowl cycle: Four out of four years (3 out of 3)
MWC Championship game: three out of four years (2 out of 3 years)
NY6 bowl: One out of four years (0 out of 3 years)
Bottom Line: The Broncos have the highest set of expectations, and for good reason. They have the most consistent track record on the field and bring in the most talent on the recruiting trail. Ten-win seasons are pretty much the norm, give or take a win depending on the year. There’s no reason they shouldn’t make a bowl every season and find themselves in the championship game nearly every year. Although they haven’t done so in quite a while, they should also be making a New Year’s Six Bowl appearance once a cycle.
Year 1: To be completely clear: there is a certain standard at Boise State. And they fell short of that standard in 2021. At the same time, they were still able to save their season by pulling out a few nice wins and making a bowl. They were not able to achieve their “four-year low” minimum number of wins. The Broncos have the highest set of expectations for Mountain West teams listed here, but they are called expectations for a reason. Things will have to change for them to achieve the rest of the goals placed on them.
Year 2: Boise State got off to a horrible start, dropping two of their first four games, resulting in big changes to their offense. Then they turned things around at a remarkable rate, finding themselves in the championship game. Although they lost in the championship, the Broncos won their bowl game and ended their season with ten victories. The 2022 season was not up to their standard due to not winning the conference championship and losing to a Power 5 team (and a low-level Group of 5 team), but they were still one of the best two teams in the Mountain West.
Year 3: The Broncos have been a bit of a confusing team over the past three seasons. They have reached bowl games every single season, and have made the title game the past two seasons, winning the most recent one. On the other hand, they fell short of their four-year low for wins and have waited until the last year to try to achieve their four win-highs as well as get in a NY6 Bowl that will now be the College Football Playoff. While next season will be their best shot at those categories, it’s far from a guarantee.

Colorado State

Four-year high: 7 wins
Four-year low: 3 wins (3 wins)
Other two years: 4.5 wins (3 wins, 5 wins)
Bowl cycle: One out of four years (0 out of 3)
Bottom Line: The Rams are transitioning into a young team looking for more future cornerstones. The next season or two figures to bring some low points in the cycle as they fully transition from the old regime to the current schemes under Steve Addazio. Expect a season or two with three or four wins to their name before a bowl berth at the all too familiar 7-6 benchmark.
Year 1: The Rams hit their win-floor this year, and hopefully, that will remain their floor going forward. Thankfully, the coaching change should help that. And that is the difficulty with these expectations; they are made for the current coaching staff, and the results will look different with a new coaching staff (see Utah State below). Due to that, Colorado State should have no trouble achieving the high end of these expectations and perhaps even eclipse some of them, such as bowl games.
Year 2: In a season full of excitement and new hope, the Rams had a season to forget. For the second year in a row, all they could muster was three wins. This was in large part due to their inept offense, which failed to score twenty points or more all year long. Due to this, they match last year’s four-year low for wins. If Colorado State has any chance at meeting their expectations, they have a lot of work to do over the next two seasons.
Year 3: The Rams were expected to be an improved team in 2023 and while they were, the improvement didn’t quite meet the expectations of how much they would improve. Colorado State reached the five-win mark, falling just short of a bowl berth this season. It helps them stay on track as far as teh expectations go, but it does put a lot of pressure on next season to make a big jump to get to seven victories and clinch their first bowl appearance in quite some time.

Fresno State

Four-year high: 10 wins (10 wins)
Four-year low: 5 wins
Other two years: 7.5 wins (10 wins, 9 wins)
Bowl cycle: Three out of four years (3 out of 3)
MWC Championship game: one out of four years (1 out of 3 years)
Bottom Line: The Bulldogs were a tough team to place, as they have had more extreme highs and lows than other teams, making it difficult to establish a true base. They appear to have another special season on the horizon with the way they recruited and hit the transfer portal, thus the reason for listing the ten wins and conference championship appearance. However, they are also prone to misfiring out of the gate and not being able to recover, so they have a low floor listed as well. For bowls, it seems like a safer bet they clinch one more often than not.
Year 1: After the first year of this cycle, the Bulldogs are right on track. They reached the ten-win mark following their victory in the bowl game and are still primed to make a run next season as well, so they have the potential to exceed their expectations. Fresno State, like any of these teams, is difficult to predict year to year, but with a good core, talented recruits, and a coaching staff that is good with developing players, they are as good of a bet as any over the next three seasons.
Year 2: Fresno State was aiming for a special season behind their NFL-caliber quarterback. Unfortunately, those hopes were derailed by injuries, but they rode a hot second half all the way to a conference championship and followed that up with an LA Bowl victory. The Bulldogs hit their championship game expectation in their second try and, because they got another ten-win season, are on pace to eclipse their average wins by a wide margin. Things will be tougher in the seasons to come (at least on paper), but they have already built a nice cushion for themselves.
Year 3: The Bulldogs all but cemented exceeding the above expectations with a nine-win season this past year, They have reached the projected number of bowl games and as long as they don’t lay an egg in 2024, they should meet or eclipse all of the categories on this list, which isn’t always easy to do.

Hawaii

Four-year high: 8 wins
Four-year low: 4 wins (3 wins)
Other two years: 5.5 wins (6 wins, 5 wins)
Bowl cycle: Two out of four years (1 out of 3)
Bottom Line: The Rainbow Warriors took a gentle step back from the championship appearance the year before, but more challenging times may be coming up ahead for them. They have entirely changed their schemes, and thus, the roster needs a makeover to find players who fit those schemes. It would be expected to see some middling years, low highs and high lows, with no extreme season on either end. Hawaii should be a good bet to make at least one bowl, however.
Year 1: Hawaii usually plays an extra game compared to their peers, but they are not handicapped for that as far as expectations go. They reached six wins, even in a trying season, which helps them out when it comes to meeting expectations. Especially because lean years seem to be on the horizon. The eight-win mark may seem like a pipe dream right now, but reaching a bowl game sometime in the next three years should not be an issue for the Rainbow Warriors.
Year 2: Rebuilding a program is not always fun, especially in the first year, and that was the situation the Rainbow Warriors found themselves in this past year. They lacked an identity for most of the season, and even though they hit their stride the last month or so, they accumulated more moral victories than actual ones. Unfortunately, the three wins they managed to get fell short of their projected low, meaning they won’t meet that projection.
Year 3: The Rainbow Warriors took a step forward last season, but it didn’t help them in their quest for a bowl berth and relevancy in the Mountain West. They did end the season with five wins and were much more competitive. It would be a long-shot for them to reach their expected high of eight-wins next season, but getting to their second bowl game in the past four years is attainable and would be a nice milestone for Coach Chang and Hawaii team.

Nevada

Four-year high: 9
Four-year low: 5 (2 wins)
Other two years: 7.5 (8 wins, 2 wins)
Bowl cycle: Three out of four years (1 out of 3)
MWC Championship game: One of our four years (0 out of 3)
Bottom Line: The Wolf Pack have earned the benefit of the doubt here as they have raised their standard already the past few seasons with three straight bowls. It seems fair to expect them to finish above .500 and reach a bowl three out of the next four years, and it’s not too much to ask to win the West division of those seasons. No one has raised their floor more than Nevada these past four years, which is reflected here.
Year 1: This was the year for Nevada and although they fell short of their expectations and just short of the high mark listed here, it was a soft landing for them with eight wins. The Wolf Pack appears on track to stay within the range laid out for them here, but with the coaching change and a rebuild on the horizon, that is now in jeopardy. However, the games are played for a reason and they could surprise and rise to the challenge.
Year 2: The same goes for Nevada, who had an extremely trying season. They looked like they may tread water, winning their first two games. However, those were the only two games the Wolf Pack were able to win in the challenging 2022 season. Due to that, they fall well below their four-year low of five wins and will need quite a turnaround over the next two years to reach their projected high of nine wins. That’s what a coaching change will do to you.
Year 3: It was another poor season for the Wolf Pack as they draft further away from being able to meet any of these expectations. They already have two seasons well below their four-year low expectation. Nevada would have to pull off a near miracle next season under new head coach Jeff Choate to reach their four-year high for wins as well as the Mountain West championship. Truthfully, making a bowl game would be a huge success after the past few seasons.

New Mexico

Four-year high: 6 wins
Four-year low: 2 wins (2 wins)
Other two years: 4 wins (3 wins, 4 wins)
Bowl cycle: One out of four years (0 out of 3)
Bottom Line: As a team in the beginning stages of a complete rebuild, there is no need to set expectations that have no chance of being completed. That being said, the Lobos were reasonably impressive in their first season under Danny Gonzales, competing in almost every game and getting in the win column twice. Reaching six wins and a bowl game does not seem out of the question for them in this cycle, and raising their floor with a few four-win seasons also seems attainable in the back of half the four years.
Year 1: The Lobos are more or less on track with the expectations laid out for them. They are trying to climb up the win column slowly. They still have some wiggle room for a down year, but hopefully, it won’t come to that. 2022 should show more growth and competitiveness, although that remains to be seen. The things listed here are pretty achievable; just make a bowl by 2024. Otherwise, no one is expecting too much from New Mexico.
Year 2: It wasn’t a great year for New Mexico by any means, and for the second year in a row, they seemed to run out of steam as the year went on, leaving them with only two wins to show for their season. With that being said, the Lobos still fall within their four-year expectations for now. They hit their lowest projection and can reach their other projections if they win five and six games the next two years. It won’t be easy but it is still in play.
Year 3: The Lobos did improve last season, reaching four wins. However, that win mark unfortunately represents the high end of the Danny Gonzales era. Now a new coaching regime enter the fold and they will attempt to get to six victories and bowl game in order to basically meet these expectations. However, it is much more likely New Mexico struggles to achieve a few wins next season as they undergo another rebuild.

San Diego State

Four-year high: 10 wins (12 wins)
Four-year low: 7 wins (4 wins)
Other two years: 8.5 wins (7 wins)
Bowl cycle: Four out of four years (2 out of 3)
MWC Championship game: One out of four years (1 out of 3)
Bottom Line: The Aztecs have long been considered the most consistent team in the conference, which carries positive and negative connotations. Their expectations in the next cycle reflect much of what they’ve already done; they have a higher floor than most but a lower ceiling compared to some. This results in expecting SDSU to have solid but not spectacular seasons, which annual bowl appearances and hopefully a conference title appearance along with it.
Year 1: The Aztecs cleared the bar and then some during 2021. They have already achieved a conference championship appearance as well as double-digit wins. Now, most of what they do going forward can basically be a bonus. San Diego State doesn’t really have down years, so their floor is higher than most, and it is hard to see them doing worse than that. They are set up pretty well in the years to come.
Year 2: After having a very successful year in 2021, San Diego State came back down to earth in 2022. They were in the hunt to win the division, but faltered in some big games after taking steps back on defense and special teams compared to the year prior. All of that led to a decent showing of seven wins, which is what their four-year low is projected to be. If the Aztecs are to meet these expectations, they will need to find a way to bounce back heading into 2023.
Year 3: San Diego State did not find a way to bounce back in 2023. Instead, the bottom fell out, and they had their worst football season since 2009. Their four victories were a drastic step below what their four-year low was for win totals, and they ended up missing ga bowl game, which seemed unthinkable when these expectations were initially made. Now, with a new coaching staff and an influx of talent on the roster, the Aztecs hope they can have a respectable season and find a way to salvage their expectations.

San Jose State

Four-year high: 7 wins (8 wins)
Four-year low: 4 wins
Other two years: 5.5 wins (5 wins, 7 wins)
Bowl cycle: Two out of four years (2 out of 3)
Bottom Line: It remains to be seen if 2020 is the high point for the Spartans or the start of a new wave of competitiveness. Due to that, their expectations are set somewhere in the middle. They likely have another bowl season or two in them, and their floor embraces a likely fallout as this wave of players phases out. They were difficult to figure out but will be among the most interesting to follow.
Year 1: The Spartans came back down to earth in 2021, but thankfully for them, their four-year expectations prepared for that. Still, they have their work cut out for them still and will need to rebound going forward. They should be right around a bowl team every season in the near future, and their range of expectations is pretty narrow, so they are still in a good position to continue to meet them.
Year 2: San Jose State jumped out to a great start to being season, but faltered a bit in the second half of the season. It felt like they should have one or two more wins than they ended up with, still made a bowl game (which they lost). Regardless, 2022 allowed the Spartans to reach their four-year high for victories, so they are on par with the expectations set for them. Halfway through this exercise and they are on course.
Year 3: It was a tale of two halves for the Spartans in 2023. They started out with a tough schedule and the losses were piling up, but then they became one of the hottest teams in the conference during the second half of the year, ending up with seven wins on the season and made it to another bowl game. This assured them that they can meet or potentially exceed all their expectation categories. Next year may be rough for San Jose State, but they have some built-up room to slide thanks to successes the past few seasons.

UNLV

Four-year high: 4 wins (9 wins)
Four-year low: 1 win
Other two years: 3.5 wins (2 wins, 5 wins)
Bowl cycle: One out of four years (1 out of 3)
MWC Championship game (1 out of 0)
Bottom Line: The Rebels get some leeway with their expectations as they are a rebuilding program. Their high win total is the benchmark goal for year three or four, and making a bowl game at some point in this cycle would be a major boon for the program. Incremental success is the name of the game for Arroyo and his program, for this cycle anyway.
Year 1: The team with the lowest expectations still isn’t guaranteed to meet them. 2022 is the year the Rebels need to start showing improvement. Thankfully, it will be easy to build upon the two wins from last season. UNLV still has a shot at reaching these goals, but next year will show how optimistic to be about reaching their goals.
Year 2: The Rebels were much improved this season, with a dynamic offense and more confidence. However, injuries and a tougher part of the schedule kept them from playing in a bowl game. On the other hand, five wins is a huge improvement from their previous seasons. In fact, they burst past their four-year high for wins into new territory. With another coaching change, it will be interesting to see what happens over the next two years.
Year 3: UNLV blew all previous expectations out of the water with a sensational 2023 season under Coach Odom. They rode this all the way to nine wins, more than doubling their four-year high expectations. In doing this, they hit the one bowl game they were projected for, and are in good shape to clear that next season. Also, they appeared in the Mountain West championship, accomplishing another thing that wasn’t expected of them.

Utah State

Four-year high: 6 wins (11 wins)
Four-year low: 2 wins
Other two years: 3.5 wins (6 wins, 6 wins)
Bowl cycle: One out of four years (3 out of 3)
MWC Championship game/champions (1 out of 0 years)
Bottom Line: It doesn’t seem that long ago that the Aggies were not only in the top of the conference standings but also nationally ranked. Times have changed, and expectations along with it. With a rebuild appearing likely and necessary, Utah State falls into a grouping with other teams looking to start from the ground up. Preparing for lean years with only two or three wins seems like a safe bet, with reaching a bowl or falling just short feeling attainable on the back end of the cycle.
Year 1: As stated in quite a few previous articles, our estimation of Utah State in 2021 was extremely off-base. They have already blown through the glass ceiling of the expectations laid out for them last season and are set up to be competitive for the foreseeable future, even if they won’t always be able to match last year’s pace. Regardless, they are almost certain not to be at the bottom of the conference.
Year 2: The Aggies came back down to earth in 2022 after their magical championship season. Some injuries and a lack of explosiveness on offense did them in. Now, because their expectations were so low when they were set two years ago, Utah State’s six wins still have them well ahead of the pace laid out here. They are still in a good position after collecting 17 wins the past two years.
Year 3: Utah State continues to defy these initial expectations in a positive way, Though they haven’t reached the highest of their 2021 season again, they haven’t needed to in order to raising the ceiling for these expectations, posting back-to-back six-win seasons and reaching their third bowl game in as many years. They could have a down year and be just fine in the categories here, although a down year doens’t seem likely.

Wyoming

Four-year high: 9 wins (9 wins)
Four-year low: 6 wins
Other two years: 7.5 wins (7 wins, 8 wins)
Bowl cycle: Three out of four years (3 out of 3)
Bottom Line: Under Craig Bohl, the Cowboys have achieved something they have never experienced before: consistency as a good but not great team. Expect more of the same going forward because there is no reason to believe anything different. They should make a bowl game at least three of the next four years if not all four. They will likely be in the seven or eight-win range, give or take a win on either end. While the hope is there is still a special season to be had one of these years, having a high floor is much better than the alternative of years past.
Year 1: Wyoming turned in a season basically in the middle of their stated expectations. They reached seven wins which is more or less their average. Plus, they got to a bowl game right away, giving them some wiggle room over the next three seasons. Basically, the Cowboys are right on track with their expectations, at least for the time being.
Year 2: The Cowboys are a tricky team. Last year, they underachieved according to their own expectations and then suffered big losses in the transfer portal. This season, they were young, and not many pegged them to be successful. In 2022, Wyoming ended up overachieving and making a bowl game once again. They have achieved their “other two-year” average, but the rare nine-win season is still haunting them and time will tell if they can attain it.
Year 3: The Cowboys are on track, reaching their high win total expectation after posting nine wins during the 2023 season. They are the definition of consistency and because of that, they have found themselves in a position to achieve all of their expectations. As long as they get to six wins (or more) next season, Wyoming can meet each category and maybe exceed the four-year low and bowl categories.