2024 NCAA Tournament: Why San Diego State can, and cannot, make Final Four

We are vastly approaching the famed second weekend of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately for the Mountain West, only one team will see the second weekend after a record six bids made the tourney: San Diego State. Who else, am I right?!?

Utah State suffered a 39-point blowout loss to No. 1 Purdue Sunday; Colorado State was the only other team to win at least one game while Nevada, New Mexico and Boise State all flamed out in different fashions. On the bright side, the Mountain West did secure a record-most 10 units—superseding last year’s eight—which should net the conference ~$20 million over the next six seasons.

Similarly to last year, San Diego State is the last man standing to add additional units. Let’s go into why they can—and cannot—make the Final Four.

Why SDSU can make Final Four (+1200):

DraftKings puts the odds at +1200, and let’s examine some reasons why.

Be sure to check out DraftKings Sportsbook for more, where lines and odds are subject to change.

What San Diego State lacks in sheer size, or offensive capabilities (relative to the rest of the field), they make up for with toughness and experience.

Jaedon LeDee, Lamont Butler, Micah Parrish and Darrion Trammell were all in this position last year—needing to knock off the No. 1 overall seed in Alabama, which it did, followed by slamming the door on Creighton, escaping by one.

The Aztecs are nowhere near the perfect offense, which limits their ceiling. Of the 16 teams left, they have the nation’s worst adjusted offense with the worst effective field goal percentage and second-worst turnover rate. What works in their favor is having the best free-throw rate with a slightly above-average 73.3 free-throw percentage.

In the Sweet 16 and, if they advance, the Elite 8, the pace will slow down; possessions and points will likely be at more of a premium. If it’s a grit-and-grimy, masochistic-esque game, it favors the Aztecs. They have the physicality and experience to make any game messy, though it will be no easy task against the team they lost to last year in UConn.

Why SDSU won’t make the Final Four:

Speaking of UConn ... are they better than they were last year?

The Huskies have looked like the most dominant team in the field and are maybe the most talented team in the field with Tristen Newton, Stephon Castle and Donovan Clingan heading the snake headed by Dan Hurley.

Are they beatable? Perhaps. But San Diego State will have to play mistake-free basketball for 40 minutes—running UConn off the 3-point line, make their tough 2s, limit any turnovers, win all the 50-50 balls, etc.—in order to have a chance at advancing to the Elite 8, let alone a Final Four.

Waiting for them could potentially be Iowa State and Illinois, who aren’t similar stylistically, but could cause San Diego State problems in myriad ways—just like SDSU could it.

This is a brutal path for the Aztecs. UConn is a top-2 offense with a top-8 defense—spearheaded by Clingan. They generate excellent shots that’s resulted in the fifth-highest effective field gaol percentage and the fourth-highest 2-point percentage. Defensively, they’re in the top-15 in block rate and in the top-3 in opponents’ effective field goal percentage allowed. They have length: Newton, Castle and Alex Karaban are all 6-foot-6 or above ... and that’s just their backcourt.

That feeds into UConn being sturdier on the glass—especially on the offensive end, where SDSU’s shown to be susceptible at points this season. I don’t like this draw for the Aztecs, even though whatever team escapes this region will have plenty more bruises than it did before it entered.