Stats Corner:Top NET rankings in MWC

There are six teams from the MWC who have a legitimate chance to make the NCAA tournament. This week on Stats Corner we will cover those teams based on their NET rankings based on February 14th rankings. This is not a Power ranking or the order of who is most likely to win the conference, but a look at the NET rankings in order.

Quick refresh on NET rankings it is not an algorithm, meaning there no formula for humans to recreate the rankings; the predictive-learning model does it, based on the Team Value Index or the game results, the game location, and outcome, and net efficiency (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency). The divisions for the quadrants are:

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75.

Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135.

Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240.

Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.

From the NCAA website “The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding.”

San Diego State: NET 18, Q1 4-6, Q2 4-0, Q3 4-0, Q4 5-0

The team which is tied for the third best winning percentage and is third in conference standings is the top NET team in the conference? Yep, that is because they do not have any dreaded Q3 or Q4 losses, or Q2 losses for that matter. The NCAA as made it very clear, they are concerned with Q1 wins and Q3/Q4 losses. Therefore, the biggest factors for the Aztecs are not the six Q1 losses, but the 4 Q1 wins and no Q2/Q3/Q4 losses. The committee knows schools are not going to be undefeated, but if your losses are Q1, they will not hold that against you. The Aztecs do have at least 3 more Q1 games left, giving them time to improve their resume.

New Mexico: NET 21, Q1 3-2, Q2 2-2, Q3 6-1, Q4 8-0

Here is where ranking of the lower half of the conference matters, UNLV swept the Lobos. Playing at Las Vegas was a Q2 loss, hurts but not devastating, however, losing at the Pit gives the Lobos a Q3 loss. They need the Rebels to move up in the NET rankings, so that Q3 loss becomes a Q2 loss. UNLV is currently 89^th, and if they move up to 75 then New Mexico turns a Q3 loss into a Q2. The Lobos are short on the Q1 opportunities with only 5, but have 4 more Q1 games remaining, so they can improve their status.

Utah State: NET 27, Q1 2-3, Q2 6-1, Q3 2-0, Q4 8-0

The team with the best conference and overall record is third in the NET rankings. Fortunately, for the Aggies they do have a Q3 or Q4 loss, but their schedule is hurting them a little, as they only have 5 Q1 games, like New Mexico, but they are 2-3 in those games consequently 3-2 New Mexico is ranked higher. The Aggies have 3 Q1 games left, with 2 at home, they cannot squander those opportunities, or get a dreaded Q3 loss with the other games.

Colorado State: NET 30, Q1 3-5, Q2 4-0, Q3 6-1, Q4 4-0

Here is where we can see the NCAA is serious about Q1 losses, that Rams loss to Wyoming hurts. Even with more Q1 victories the NET ranking for Colorado State is lower than Utah State. It’s unlikely that Wyoming will move up to Q2 loss, thus the Rams need to make it through the gauntlet they have coming up: Utah State, at New Mexico, at UNLV, and Nevada all Q1/Q2 games.

Boise State: NET 46, Q1 5-6, Q2 2-1, Q3 3-1, Q4 4-0

The Broncos have the most Q1 games in the conference, and the most Q1 wins in the conference. Nevertheless, they have a Q2 loss and a dangerous Q3 loss. A team can have Q1 losses without much of a penalty, but in the NET rankings Q3 and Q4 rankings are catastrophic. The Broncos need to avoid a bad loss their next 4 games, and then do well the last 3 games of the season which are all Q1.

Nevada: NET 49, Q1 5-3, Q2 0-2, Q3 3-1, Q4 4-0

Tied for the most Q1 wins in the conference, and a winning percentage in Q1, so why are the Wolfpack, ranked 6^th? Same as above, the feared Q3 loss, coupled with two Q2 losses. There are a few teams on this list who should be cheering for Wyoming to go on a hot streak and move up the rankings, so they can remove the Q3 loss. With only two Q1 games left, Colorado State and Boise State, the Wolfpack have few chances to boost their rankings, but more importantly they cannot afford another Q3 loss, or really a Q2 loss.