Stats Corner: Comparing MWC 2024 MBB to Previous Years

How should we define success for the MWC in basketball? It would not be fair to ask for “National title or Bust”, although the Aztecs got so very close to that last year, a better standard would be “is the conference improving?”. For the last Stats Corner this sports year, we are going to look at some of the more, in my opinion, important standards for the MWC in terms of basketball and compare this season to previous seasons: average NET rankings, national headliners, number of tournament bids, tournament runs, and the bottom of the conference. If you think I missed a standard, let me know. NET rankings are from the final rankings of the said year.

Average NET rankings

2024: 107.7

2023: 84.5

2022: 106.5

2021: 163.7

2020: 138.1

2019: 166.5

While averages can be overused, in this case, it does give a nice overview of the conference. This year the average, for the conference, did slightly increase back to 2022 levels, which is a slight downer. However, the conference had decreased for three straight years, and that trend had to end sometime. A slight increase, due mainly to the bottom teams is not a deal breaker. If the conference can hold steady between the 80’s and 100’s for an average ranking they are in good shape, with the majority of teams in the conference is playing better than in previous years. The Mountain West has 6 teams in the top 40, San Diego State #20, New Mexico #22, Boise State #26, Nevada #34, Colorado State #36, and Utah State #38. For a comparison, the AAC has 1 (Florida Atlantic #39), the ACC has 4 (UNC #8, Duke #10, Clemson #35, and Pittsburg), the Big East has 4 (UCONN #2, Creighton #11, Marquette #14, and St. John’s #32), the Big 10 had 5 (Purdue #3, Illinois #13, Wisconsin #21, Michigan State #24, and Nebraska #33, the PAC 12 has 2 (Arizona #4 and Colorado #25), and the WCC has 2 (Saint Mary’s #16 and Gonzaga #17) This gives teams more chances to earn Q1 and Q2 wins while avoiding Q4 games which can hurt but will not help the rankings.

The NET rankings for the top MWC teams is a move in the right direction for the conference.

National Headliners

2024: Utah State #20 and San Diego State #24 in polls, with New Mexico, Nevada, Boise State, and Colorado State getting votes

2023: New Mexico #25 in polls with San Diego State and Boise State getting votes.

2022: Boise State #23 and Colorado State #24 in polls

2021: San Diego State #16 in polls

2020: San Diego State #6 in polls

2019: Nevada #14 in polls

In previous years, this has been the problem for the MWC. While more schools have been getting attention and votes, they have not been ranked as high as previous MWC teams. The conference has really needed a team to stand out, think AAC and Houston, or WCC and Gonzaga even though St Mary’s is consistently good. Last year’s national title game run for San Diego State was a massive deal for the conference, and it has shown with the teams in the polls. While this year the MWC did not have a national headliner, they did have six teams who were ranked at some point during the season. Unlike previous years, when they lost they did not automatically drop out of the rankings, the Aggies were ranked for nine weeks and the Rams peaked at #13 to highlight the conference. It also allowed the conference to have ranked match-ups to highlight during the regular season.

Absolutely a trend up for the conference.

Number of Tournament Bids

2024: 6, San Diego State 5th seed, Utah State 8th seed, Colorado State 10th seed, Nevada 10th seed, Boise State 10th seed, New Mexico 11th

2023: 4, San Diego State 5th seed, Utah State 10th seed, Boise State 10th seed, Nevada 11th seed

2022: 4, Colorado State 6th seed, San Diego State 8th seed, Boise State 8th seed, Wyoming 12th seed

2021: 2, San Diego State 6th seed, Utah State 11th seed

2020: Only Utah State, as one of two schools to qualify does that mean they are at least national runner-up? Realistically only 2, with San Diego State being 2.

2019: 2, Nevada 7th seed, Utah State 8th seed

The NCAA tournament is the biggest showcase for college sports. Millions of brackets are filled out, many by people who do not watch games, but when filling them out they do see the names of the schools and it generates some interest in the conference and schools. The MWC has only qualified two teams for a few years until 4 teams the previous two years, increasing to six this year which is a conference record and a mid-major record. While the seedings were not good, I’m sure the groan from the Broncos is playing on X somewhere, the first step was taken in getting teams in.

Definite upward trend

Tournament Runs

2024: San Diego State beat 12th seeded UAB 69-65, beat 13th seeded Yale 85-57, and lost to 1st seeded UCONN 82-52, Utah State beat 9th seeded TCU 88-72 and lost to 1st seeded Purdue 106-67, Colorado State beat 10th seeded Virginia 67-42 in First Four and lost to 7th seeded Texas 56-44, New Mexico one and done lost to 6th seeded Clemson 77-56, Boise State one and done lost to 10th seeded Colorado 60-53 in First Four, Nevada one and done lost to 7th seeded Dayton 63-60,

2023: San Diego won 5 games including against #1 Alabama, went to title game and lost to UCONN 76-59, Utah State one and done lost to 7th seed Missouri 76-65, Boise State one and done lost to 7th seed Northwestern, Nevada one and done lost to 11th seeded Arizona State 98-73 in First Four.

2022: Colorado State one and done lost to 11th seed Michigan 75-63, San Diego State one and done lost to 9th seed Creighton 72-69, Boise State one and done lost to 9th seed Memphis 64-54, Wyoming one and done lost First Four to 12th seed Indiana 66-58,

2021: San Diego State one and done lost to 11th seeded Syracuse 78-62, Utah State one and done lost to 6th seeded Texas Tech 65-53

2019: Nevada one and done lost to 10th seeded Florida 70-61, Utah State one and done lost to 9th seeded Washington 78-61

This is the weakest part of the conference in general year after year. When the conference does get bids to the Big Dance, the teams get two left feet and fall apart. Last year’s title run for San Diego State will probably be the high mark for years to come, but that does not mean teams can be one and done, as the other three teams were last year. The Aggies finally won a NCAA tournament game for the first time since 2001 and the Rams for the first time since 2013. Here is a rundown of the last time the rest of the MWC teams won a tournament game: Nevada 2018 (went to Sweet 16), New Mexico 2012, UNLV 2008, Wyoming 2002, and Fresno State 2001, Boise State never, Air Force never, and San Jose State never. With the exception of Nevada and San Diego State, the last time each team won in the first round, they lost in the second, and only Nevada, San Diego State, and UNLV have made the Sweet 16 since Ronald Reagan left the Presidency. Whereas the Missouri Valley conference has had 6 different teams make the Sweet 16 since 1998. While I understand that the seeding in the tournament has not been favorable for MWC teams, it is not like they are getting seeded 12th and 13th. In 2022, the MWC was the only conference to go winless with multiple teams in the tournament, and if it was not for the Aztecs, it would have been the same last year. This year the Mountain West went 4-6 (.400), the WCC and A10 both went 2-2 (.500), and the PAC 12 was 6-4 (.600).

Slightly down after last year, but better than historical records.

Bottom of the Conference

2024 Average 225.0 Wyoming NET 155, Fresno State NET 233, San Jose State NET 243, Air Force NET 269

2023 Average 162.75 Colorado State NET 120, Air Force NET 151, Fresno State NET 180, Wyoming NET 200

2022 Average 207.0 Nevada NET 127, New Mexico NET 165, Air Force NET 250, San Jose State NET 286

2021 Average 289.75 Fresno State NET 199, New Mexico NET 303, Air Force NET 324, San Jose State NET 333

2020: Average 234.75 Fresno State NET 161, Air Force Net 220, Wyoming NET 271, San Jose State NET 287

2019: Average 273.25 Colorado State NET 189, Air Force NET 242, Wyoming NET 321, San Jose State NET 341

In basketball, a Q1 overtime lose can actually improve your rankings while a Q4 game win can hurt your as all 300+ teams are included in the rankings. As a result, it is best for the conference to limit the number of Q4 games a team plays. In previous years, the MWC has had 2 or even 3 schools ranked in the 300s. This affects the NET ranking of the upper schools by not providing a quality win. This year there are no teams ranked in the 300s, but there were three in the 200s, and the average of this group increased to 225, the highest in three years. The top teams in the league cannot being playing Q4 teams during the regular if they hope to improve their rankings and seedings.

Slightly down compared to recent seasons.

Overall

With the exception lower and overall NET rankings, the MWC basketball is doing well. The conference as a whole is improving and most of the teams are getting better over the years. The biggest thing which needs to happen is more success in the NCAA Tournament. Getting six teams in is great, and having a team in the Sweet Sixteen or Championship game is phenomenal but it cannot just be the Aztecs having success. The MWC cannot be a conference of one and dones. At least three teams need to win their opening round games, with two teams making the Sweet Sixteen annually. Otherwise the MWC will always stay a lower group of 5 basketball conference.